Three reporters today and the headline number belongs to the steel mill, not the industrial giant.
Three reporters today and the headline number belongs to the steel mill, not the industrial giant. Steel Dynamics opened up almost two percent on the print, and the number that earns that gap is earnings per share growth of sixty point eight percent year over year. Revenue grew nearly twenty…
Chapters
- Three reporters today and the headline number belongs to the…
- Fifth Third Bancorp is the name I want to spend an extra beat…
- Coming days I will be pulling the full filing on Steel…
Transcript
Three reporters today and the headline number belongs to the steel mill, not the industrial giant.
Steel Dynamics opened up almost two percent on the print, and the number that earns that gap is earnings per share growth of sixty point eight percent year over year. Revenue grew nearly twenty percent, net margin sits at seven point eight percent, and the stock trades at a price-to-earnings of twenty one and a half. For a cyclical name in a commodity business, that margin and that earnings growth in the same sentence is the thing the Street tends to underweight — when steel spreads move, they move fast, and Steel Dynamics has the cost structure to capture most of it. That is the knife in the gap. This one goes on the full teardown list.
General Electric slipped less than one percent on the print, which is a quiet reaction for a name carrying a price-to-earnings of thirty six. Revenue grew twenty one point seven percent year over year, net margin came in at seventeen point seven percent, and earnings per share grew eighteen point three percent. Here is what I want you to sit with: a thirty six multiple on an industrial that is still mid-transformation implies the market is pricing in a runway of sustained margin expansion — and the gap between that multiple and an eighteen percent earnings growth rate is either a premium for the aerospace cycle or a number that eventually has to close. The backlog story has done a lot of heavy lifting for this valuation. I want to go through the segment breakdown before we call it earned.
Fifth Third Bancorp is the name I want to spend an extra beat on today, because this is where the roundup earns its keep. Revenue grew fifty eight point two percent year over year — that is the single most dramatic number on the slate, and it is almost certainly a rate-driven net interest income story swelling the top line. Meanwhile earnings per share fell five and a half percent in the same period. Read that again: fifty eight percent revenue growth, earnings per share down. The provision builds and expense growth ate the bottom while the top inflated on a rate environment that is already plateauing. When that tailwind compresses, there is no symmetric relief waiting on the cost side. The stock barely moved — up three tenths — which means the market either understood every word I just said, or has not done the arithmetic yet. Net margin at twenty eight point eight percent looks reasonable in isolation. Put it next to the direction of the provision expense and tell me if you still believe it.
Coming days I will be pulling the full filing on Steel Dynamics to follow that margin story through the cost structure, and I want to go deep on General Electric's segment revenue to figure out whether that multiple is aerospace conviction or momentum that has simply not been tested yet.
The numbers were always there. Most people just do not look. See you at the next filing.