Heavy bank day with a healthcare grenade dropped in the middle of it.
Heavy bank day with a healthcare grenade dropped in the middle of it. Let us start where the real drama lives. UnitedHealth Group printed earnings per share down thirty-two point seven percent year over year on a net margin of just three point one percent, and the stock gapped up four point seven…
Chapters
- Heavy bank day with a healthcare grenade dropped in the middle…
- Bank of America gapped down four point eight percent despite…
- Johnson and Johnson gapped up two point one percent on revenue…
Transcript
Heavy bank day with a healthcare grenade dropped in the middle of it.
Let us start where the real drama lives. UnitedHealth Group printed earnings per share down thirty-two point seven percent year over year on a net margin of just three point one percent, and the stock gapped up four point seven percent anyway — which tells you everything about how low the bar had been set. Here is the knife twist: that margin collapse is not a one-quarter accident. It is the compounding effect of medical cost ratios running structurally hotter as post-pandemic utilization normalizes upward, and if that trend does not reverse, a twenty-three point nine price-to-earnings multiple on a healthcare operator with sub-four-percent margins is a story that needs revisiting.
Now the banks, because they dominated the slate. JPMorgan Chase printed a net margin of thirty-three point three percent on revenue growth of one hundred and nine percent year over year, gapped up on the print, and that is the cleanest number of the morning. When the largest bank in the country grows revenue at that rate and holds margin above thirty percent, the Street calls it a good quarter and moves on. What they may be glossing over is how much of that revenue lift is rate-environment dependent.
Bank of America gapped down four point eight percent despite earnings per share growth of twenty-five point eight percent and a net margin of thirty point two percent. The market wanted more, or saw something in the mix it did not like — fee income trajectory, deposit costs, something in the net interest income guide. That gap deserves a closer look at the segment breakdown.
Citigroup gapped down on a print that showed revenue growth of ninety-nine point two percent year over year and earnings per share growth of thirty-five point two percent. At an eleven point eight price-to-earnings multiple, the market is still discounting execution risk on the transformation story — the numbers look better than the price reaction suggests.
State Street gapped down four point one percent despite revenue growth of one hundred and eighty-one point two percent year over year. That revenue number is large enough that you have to ask what the base-period comparison looks like and whether fee compression in custody is quietly eating the margin.
Goldman Sachs delivered earnings per share growth of forty-one point seven percent and only moved down one point five percent. At a twelve point four multiple, the market is treating this like a utility. Morgan Stanley gapped down two point seven percent on earnings per share growth of thirty-eight point six percent — same dynamic, better margin story than Goldman on a trailing basis.
Johnson and Johnson gapped up two point one percent on revenue growth of eight point one percent with earnings per share down seven point seven percent. The net margin at twenty-one point five percent is still healthy, but earnings per share declining while revenue grows tells you there is cost or mix pressure hiding inside.
BlackRock grew revenue twenty-six point five percent but earnings per share fell three point seven percent. Fee yield compression against a rising asset base is the tension there, and at a twenty-six point three multiple, that compression matters.
Fastenal was clean. Twelve point five percent revenue growth, thirteen point six percent earnings per share growth, fifteen point five percent net margin. The only thing unusual is the forty-three point two multiple on an industrial distributor — the Street is paying for consistency.
Coming days, I am pulling apart UnitedHealth and Bank of America in full — the margin structure on one and the gap-down mechanics on the other both have more to show.
That is the menu. The numbers were always there — most people just do not look. See you at the next filing.