Three prints today that each break something you thought you understood about a sector.
Three prints today that each break something you thought you understood about a sector. Start with Accenture, because an eighteen percent gap on a consulting giant is not a bad quarter — it is a confession. Revenue grew seven point three percent year over year, net margin held at ten point six…
Transcript
Three prints today that each break something you thought you understood about a sector.
Start with Accenture, because an eighteen percent gap on a consulting giant is not a bad quarter — it is a confession. Revenue grew seven point three percent year over year, net margin held at ten point six percent, and EPS crawled forward zero point seven percent year over year. That EPS number is the tell: revenue is moving but the dollar falls apart on the way to the bottom line, which means either pricing is eroding, headcount costs are stickier than guided, or both. The Street priced Accenture like a compounder and got a spread compression story instead. The multiple at ten point four times earnings is interesting only if you believe margin stabilizes — and this print gives you no reason to believe that yet.
Kroger is the number that needs the knife twisted. EPS down fifty-seven point eight percent year over year on revenue growth of zero point four percent, and the stock gaps down eight point four percent. Here is why that EPS collapse happened and what it means going forward: Kroger was carrying gains from prior divestitures and one-time items that flattered year-ago earnings, and now that the Albertsons deal is dead, the financial engineering runway is gone — so the underlying grocery operating leverage, which was always thin at a zero point seven percent net margin, is fully exposed with nowhere to hide. A P-E of thirty-four point four on a business printing zero point seven percent net margin and negative earnings growth is a valuation built on a story that no longer exists. Watch the same-store sales line in the full filing — that will tell you whether the volume is actually there or whether they were buying it with promotions.
Jabil is the least dramatic on price, down less than one percent, but the numbers underneath are genuinely interesting. Revenue up nineteen percent, EPS up seventy-eight point eight percent year over year — that is real operating leverage showing up. The catch is the P-E at forty-eight, which is a steep multiple for a contract manufacturer running a two percent net margin. The Street is paying for the AI and data center infrastructure exposure inside Jabil's mix shift, and the question the filing will answer is whether that segment is large enough and sticky enough to justify what is essentially a software multiple on a hardware assembler's margin structure.
Accenture and Kroger are the two I will tear apart in full — Accenture because the margin story has layers and the segment mix will tell us which business lines are actually degrading, and Kroger because a fifty-seven point eight percent EPS drop on a grocery business at a thirty-four multiple deserves a full accounting of where exactly the money went.
That is the teardown. The numbers were always there — most people just do not look. See you at the next filing.