Two prints today — one grocery chain reminding you that thin margins punish any stumble, and one contract manufacturer whose numbers look great until you ask what you are actually paying for them.
Two prints today — one grocery chain reminding you that thin margins punish any stumble, and one contract manufacturer whose numbers look great until you ask what you are actually paying for them. Kroger — ticker K-R
Transcript
Two prints today — one grocery chain reminding you that thin margins punish any stumble, and one contract manufacturer whose numbers look great until you ask what you are actually paying for them.
Kroger — ticker K-R
The number is EPS down fifty-eight percent year over year, and the stock gapped eight percent lower on the open. At a point-seven percent net margin, Kroger has no cushion — every basis point of shrink, labor, or promotional spend lands directly on the bottom line, and whatever hit them this quarter hit hard. The market is sitting at a thirty-four P/E on a grocery business earning less than a penny per dollar of revenue. That multiple was already a bet on execution, and the execution just cracked.
Jabil — ticker J-B-L
Revenue up nineteen percent, EPS up seventy-nine percent — those are clean numbers, and the street apparently agrees because the gap was less than a percent. But hold on. Jabil is a contract manufacturer earning two and a half cents on the dollar of revenue, and it is carrying a forty-eight P/E. You do not pay that multiple for a margin structure like that unless you believe the mix is shifting toward something richer — higher-value services, healthcare, cloud infrastructure buildout — or unless the EPS growth is being engineered through buybacks and you have not read the cash flow statement carefully enough yet. The gap tells you the print was fine. The multiple tells you the story has to stay perfect.
Coming days, I am going deeper on both of these. Kroger first — a fifty-eight percent EPS drop on four-tenths of a percent revenue growth at a thirty-four multiple is a story that needs a full autopsy. Where exactly did the margin go, what does guidance say about the recovery path, and is the Street already pricing the repair or still catching down. Then Jabil — because when a thin-margin manufacturer trades at nearly fifty times earnings, the footnotes around segment mix and working capital are not optional reading.
That is the teardown. The numbers were always there — most people just do not look. See you at the next filing.