The Deep Brief

Some days the earnings tape hands you a slow bleed and asks you to call it a paper cut.

Sep 9, 2026 · 4:31 PM CT · 2:46 · The Deep Brief | Roundup | Wed, Sep 9

Some days the earnings tape hands you a slow bleed and asks you to call it a paper cut. Today is one of those days. One name on the slate today, and it is Kroger. The number that matters is not the revenue — one point one percent growth year over year is almost insulting, but that is grocery, that…

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Transcript

Some days the earnings tape hands you a slow bleed and asks you to call it a paper cut. Today is one of those days.

One name on the slate today, and it is Kroger. The number that matters is not the revenue — one point one percent growth year over year is almost insulting, but that is grocery, that is the business. The number that stops you cold is earnings per share down fifty-three point four percent year over year, against a price-to-earnings multiple sitting at thirty-four point one. Let me put that in plain language: the market is paying a premium growth multiple for a company that just cut its earnings in half. That is the tension. The net margin at zero point seven percent tells you there was never much cushion here — grocery is a volume game played on razor edges — but a fifty-three percent earnings collapse is not a margin squeeze, that is a structural event. What happened is a combination of merger-related costs from the Albertsons deal still working through the income statement, elevated interest expense, and operating deleverage on a top line that simply did not move fast enough to absorb the weight. What it means going forward is this: if the deal synergies do not show up in the next two to three quarters in a visible way, the multiple compression that one point three percent gap down on the print was hinting at is not the end of the conversation — it is the opening bid. The Street is still modeling a recovery that the filing has not promised yet. Watch the operating margin line in the next print. If it does not widen, the story changes.

Coming up, I am going to tear into Kroger properly — the segment detail, what the fuel business is actually contributing, and whether that Albertsons integration cost is a one-time item or a preview of the next two years. That one earns the full treatment.

The numbers were always there. Most people just do not look. See you at the next filing.

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AI generated. Not financial advice.