Big bank day — and the scoreboard is messier than the headlines want you to believe.
Big bank day — and the scoreboard is messier than the headlines want you to believe. Start with Goldman Sachs, because a nine percent gap on the print is the loudest noise on the tape today. The number that earns that move is earnings per share growth of twenty-seven point seven percent year over…
Transcript
Big bank day — and the scoreboard is messier than the headlines want you to believe.
Start with Goldman Sachs, because a nine percent gap on the print is the loudest noise on the tape today. The number that earns that move is earnings per share growth of twenty-seven point seven percent year over year, and the Street rewarded it — but revenue only grew one point three percent year over year, which means Goldman did not grow its way to that beat, it engineered it. Cost discipline and buybacks carried the load, and that is a very different story than a franchise firing on all cylinders. Watch what happens to that multiple if the trading environment softens.
JPMorgan gapped up two and a half percent on a print where net margin sits at thirty-three point three percent — the fattest in the group by a wide margin. Revenue nearly doubled year over year, but earnings per share growth was only two point four percent, which tells you the revenue line has some noise in it — likely the First Republic consolidation still running through the base. The margin story is the real read here, and it is a strong one.
Bank of America up almost two percent, net margin thirty point two percent, earnings per share growth eighteen point seven percent year over year. Quietly one of the cleaner prints in the group — the margin expansion against that revenue base is doing real work.
Now Citigroup, and this is where I twist the knife. The stock gapped down five point three percent despite revenue growth of ninety-nine point two percent year over year and earnings per share growth of twenty-six point five percent. So why did the market punish a bank that nearly doubled its revenue? Because that revenue number is almost certainly inflated by the same kind of divestitures and one-time items that Jane Fraser's transformation plan has been generating for quarters — the market has learned to look through the headline and ask what the recurring engine actually earns, and the answer on a net margin of seventeen point four percent is that the core franchise is still well below peers. Until the restructuring noise clears, the Street is going to keep discounting the print.
Wells Fargo gapped down two point seven percent. Net margin twenty-two point two percent, revenue growth of seventy-two point seven percent year over year — again, base effects almost certainly at work. The market's reaction suggests the forward guidance or the net interest income trajectory said something it did not like.
Fastenal is the odd name out in an otherwise all-bank slate. Down two point eight percent on revenue growth of ten point nine percent year over year and a price-to-earnings of nearly forty times. For an industrial distributor, that multiple requires acceleration, and ten point nine percent is not acceleration — it is deceleration dressed up in a solid gross margin. The market noticed.
Coming days I am going into Goldman Sachs and Citigroup in full. Goldman because the gap between revenue growth and earnings growth deserves a complete walk-through of what is actually driving the beat. Citigroup because the transformation accounting is genuinely complex and the margin story buried in that filing will tell you whether this turnaround is real or still theater.
The numbers were always there — most people just do not look. See you at the next filing.